The UK property market could see transactions slide come spring of next year, House Buyer Bureau research reveals.
On average over the last 10 years, just 71,863 transactions were completed during Q1, marking a 17% drop on the final quarter of the previous year.
The final quarter of the year, which is the busiest for the UK property market, sees an average of 86,397 transactions complete.
House Buyer Bureau’s data suggests that the market slowdown could kick in as soon as December.
On average, the level of transactions completed in the month of December sits 2% below that seen in November.
This average level of monthly transactions continues to fall to an annual low of 63,974 in January, a further -26% monthly drop compared to December.
House Buyer Bureau managing director Chris Hodgkinson says: “The property market has weathered a tough period in recent weeks, and we’ve already seen damage done in the form of dwindling buyer demand and a resulting drop in transaction levels, as buyers struggle to overcome the increased cost of borrowing.”
“Unfortunately, this decline in transactions is set to get quite a bit worse before it gets any better and the impending seasonal slowdown which usually kicks in from December will only add to the woes of the nation’s homesellers.”
“The good news is that once this winter market freeze thaws in the spring, the nation’s buyers will emerge from hibernation and we should see the market start to build momentum once again.”
“Although this will do little to help those who are currently trying to sell and suffering from a reduced level of interest in their property.”
Yesterday, HMRC revealed that UK house transactions came in at 108,480 in October, up 2% on the month before.
However, the customs body says its provisional seasonally adjusted estimate for British residents does not reflect “recent increases in mortgage rates” as the data captures transactions in October that were largely agreed “weeks or months” before.